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The Playroom! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, And Social Science

Jul 26, 2022  · “Peaked” as in local maximum, as in going up and then down again. And yes, economic recession can explain a…

Actived: Thursday Jan 1, 1970

Job Description Statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

How much should theories guide learning through experiments?

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 14, 2022  · 1. I agree that our model is a very particular formalization, and there are many other ways to formalize science. My hope is that this work stimulates others to develop alternative models to formally study experimentation strategies in science. I would be excited to see other models that potentially lead to different/more nuanced results.

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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Posted: (53 years ago) Erik van Zwet writes: I saw you re-posted your Bayes-solves-multiple-testing demo. Thanks for linking to my paper in the PPS! I think it would help people’s understanding if you explicitly made the connection with your observation that Bayesians are frequentists:. What I mean is, the Bayesian prior distribution corresponds to the frequentist sample space: it’s the set of …

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Still more on the Heckman Curve! | Statistical Modeling, Causal ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 03, 2022  · Even if you max out your Openness because you’re an academic or something, you can’t cheat Father Time, and you will grow old & tired – where learning becomes much harder, more painful, more costly, quite aside from the intrinsic loss of value due to shorter horizons and being more locked into things like families or mortgages or jobs ...

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unsupervised | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 20, 2022  · Yesterday, a speaker from the company formerly known as Facebook corrected themselves after mentioning “unsupervised learning,” saying they weren’t supposed to …

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PPL Workshop this Friday (29 July 2022) - Columbia University

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 26, 2022  · This is motivated by our shift in underlying matrix data structure for autodiff in Stan—what the Stan developers have been calling “mat-var” in meetings and pull requests because it’s an autodiff variable with a matrix value and matrix adjoint rather than our original approach using a matrix of scalar autodiff variables.

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Understanding how Anova relates to regression

Posted: (53 years ago) Mar 28, 2019  · For me, I find it more helpful to think of regression and ANOVA as special cases of linear models (or, or okay, generalized linear models) – the reason being that “regression” comes with some baggage — “regression” was developed as (and is still often taught as, at least in intro bio stats like classes) models with continuous X and “ANOVA” was developed as (and often …

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Just show me the data, baseball edition | Statistical Modeling, …

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 08, 2022  · Actually I think this makes a good causal inference example. We abduced an explanation, deduced the quantitative consequences of the explanation, then saw the model (even in very oversimplified form) fit the data very well.

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“The messy reality in between” - Columbia University

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 14, 2022  · The linked article is excellent! Though this post intersects my field (biophysics) I’ll restrain myself from commenting too much… One of the remarkable things about the “messy reality in between” the tiny scales of building blocks like molecules and the large scales of organisms is that while it’s superficially messy, there are patterns and themes that govern it. A …

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Gaurav Sood’s review of the book Noise by Kahneman et al.: In …

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 10, 2022  · In writing about noise in human judgment, Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein didn’t wrestle with the problem of noise in behavioral-science research. But behavioral-science research is the product of human judgment. Here are my comments on the book and its promotional material from last year. I was pretty frustrated with the authors’ apparent ...

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Job opportunity for a Stan user at Dugway | Statistical Modeling ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 26, 2022  · Scott Hunter writes: Job opportunity as a statistician at US Army Dugway Proving Ground, in remote Dugway, Utah. Work is rewarding in that we solve problems to improve protecting our warfighters from chemical and biological attacks.

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Krugman in the uncanny valley: A theory about east coast pundits …

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 08, 2022  · That’s the uncanny valley—where you think you know something but you don’t—and it’s a topic that interests me a lot because it seems to be where so many problems in science arise. P.S. It was funny that Krugman picked Brooklyn Heights, of all places. He’s a baby boomer . . . maybe he had The Patty Duke Show in mind.

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Don’t believe the (dental anxiety) hype | Statistical Modeling, …

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 16, 2022  · Someone named Sean writes: I am interested to hear your thoughts on the study Self-reported dental anxiety and injection phobia among individuals with tattoos and piercings, published in the Journal of Oral Sciences.. To summarise (very) briefly: The authors visited 10 tattoo parlours and handed out a questionnaire to tattooed and/or pierced individuals (n = 55).

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A professional writing coach gets GPT-3 to write an entire five ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 23, 2022  · In a paper published in the journal Science, sleep researcher Rosalind Doris and her colleagues (Doris et al., 2018) argue that Walker’s book contains “numerous factual errors.” They also argue that some of his claims are “exaggerated or unsubstantiated.” ... This entry was posted in Jobs, Literature by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.

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“Data in Wonderland”: A course on storytelling with data:

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 10, 2022  · In writing about noise in human judgment, the authors didn’t wrestle with the problem of noise in behavioral-science research. But behavioral-science research is the product of human judgment. “Data in Wonderland”: A course on storytelling with data:

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From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and …

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 06, 2022  · A couple months ago we talked about some extravagant claims made by Google engineer Blaise Agüera y Arcas, who pointed toward the impressive behavior of a chatbot and argued that its activities “do amount to understanding, in any falsifiable sense.” Arcas gets to the point of saying, “None of the above necessarily implies that we’re obligated to endow large …

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Conflicting attitudes on immigration | Statistical Modeling, Causal ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 22, 2022  · Post navigation “Predicting consumers’ choices in the age of the internet, AI, and almost perfect tracking: Some things change, the key challenges do not” A professional writing coach gets GPT-3 to write an entire five-paragraph essay, complete with fake references! Conflicting attitudes on immigration

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After-work socializing . . . alcohol . . . car crashes?

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 25, 2022  · Tony Williams writes: I thought of this while reading a complaint on LinkedIn about after-work socialization always involving alcohol (and tobacco, for those so inclined).

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“The scandal isn’t what’s illegal, the scandal is what’s legal ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 05, 2022  · I was chatting with some people the other day and the ridiculous voodoo study came up, and that reminded me of an article, “The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior,” published several years ago in the Journal of …

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“Unsupervised learning” gets a bad rap | Statistical Modeling, …

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 20, 2022  · Post navigation If this study is valuable at all, it’s for the data. If the data aren’t available, it’s pretty much useless. “Predicting consumers’ choices in the age of the internet, AI, and almost perfect tracking: Some things change, the key challenges do not”

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Details of implementation of machine learning algorithms

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 25, 2022  · Tamas: For two recent high-profile examples of results breathlessly reported without details of tuning, see the post by the Google engineer discussed here and the paper by the Google engineers discussed here.

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Nimby/Yimby thread | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and …

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 15, 2022  · A spatiotemporal analysis of transit accessibility to low-wage jobs in Miami-Dade County. Also: ... I guess my views on science reform are pretty extreme too. I think I’m right; that doesn’t make my views less extreme, although I do hope that as time goes forward, the scientific and journalistic community will catch up to me. ...

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How to win the Sloan Sports hackathon | Statistical Modeling, …

Posted: (53 years ago) 2 days ago · Sten developer Daniel Lee writes:. I walked in with knowing a few things about the work needed to win hackathons: – Define a problem. If you can clearly define a problem, you’ll end up it the top third of the competition.

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Recently in the sister blog | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 24, 2022  · Echelbarger et al. write: Across three studies, we examine the variety selections of 329 children (4–9 years of age) and 81 adults in the food domain.

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Where did the expression “six-sided number cube” come from?

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 18, 2022  · As part of the preparation for some teaching materials, I was looking something up on the AP Statistics webpage, and I came across the phrase “six-sided number cube,” which is a kind of person-from-Mars description of what in English is called a die.

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At last! Incontrovertible evidence (p=0.0001) that people over 40 …

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 08, 2022  · Post navigation I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too long Just show me the data, baseball edition At last! Incontrovertible evidence (p=0.0001) that people over 40 are older, on average, than people under 40.

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Forking paths in the estimate of the value premium?

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 11, 2022  · Gaurav Sood’s review of the book Noise by Kahneman et al.: In writing about noise in human judgment, the authors didn’t wrestle with the problem of noise in behavioral-science research. But behavioral-science research is the product of human judgment.

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“Predicting consumers’ choices in the age of the internet, AI, and ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 21, 2022  · David Gal writes: I wanted to share the attached paper on choice prediction that I recently co-authored with Itamar Simonson in case it’s of interest.. I think it’s somewhat related to your work on the Piranha Problem, in that it seems, in most cases, most of the explainable variation in people’s choices is accounted for by a few strong, stable tendencies (and these …

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Can some major media outlet please give David Weakliem a …

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 01, 2022  · David Weakliem is a sociology professor who has a blog on public opinion.He produces an impressive stream of thoughtful, surprising, nonpartisan, non-“hot-take,” takes on …

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“Columbia Loses Its No. 2 Spot in the U.S. News Rankings”

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 09, 2022  · Here’s the latest news, from Anemona Hartocollis at the New York Times:. Without fanfare, U.S. News & World Report announced that it had “unranked” Columbia University, which had been in a three-way tie for the No. 2 spot in the 2022 edition of Best Colleges, after being unable to verify the underlying data submitted by the university.

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Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 10, 2022  · Erik van Zwet writes: I saw you re-posted your Bayes-solves-multiple-testing demo. Thanks for linking to my paper in the PPS! I think it would help people’s understanding if you explicitly made the connection with your observation that Bayesians are frequentists:. What I mean is, the Bayesian prior distribution corresponds to the frequentist sample space: it’s the …

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Consequences are often intended. And, yes, religion questions in ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 07, 2022  · Someone recommended the book, “Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction,” by Derek Thompson. It had a lot of good things, many of which might be familiar with the readers of this blog but with some unexpected stuff too. Here though, I want to mention a couple of things in the book that I disagreed with.

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D&D 5e: Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 12, 2014  · The new rules for D&D 5e (formerly known as D&D Next) are finally here: Dungeons & Dragons, 5th Edition: Basic Rules; D&D 5e introduces a new game mechanic, advantage and disadvantage.

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Using large language models to generate trolling at scale

Posted: (53 years ago) 2 days ago · This is Jessica. Large language models have been getting a lot of negative attention–for being brittle and in need of human curation, for generating socially undesirable outputs–sometimes even on this blog.

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If this study is valuable at all, it’s for the data. If the data aren’t ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 19, 2022  · (Vegetarians and covid): After adjusting for important confounders, researchers who are willing to make strong unsupported conclusions have 73% (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.81) and 59% (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.99) lower odds of getting their papers rejected.

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Stan downtown intern posters: scikit-stan & constraining …

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 05, 2022  · Post navigation “The scandal isn’t what’s illegal, the scandal is what’s legal”: application of Kinsley’s rule to science From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practice Stan downtown intern posters: scikit-stan & constraining transforms

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Here’s a little problem to test your probability intuitions:

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 01, 2022  · Ariel Rubinstein and Michele Piccione send along this little problem to test your probability intuitions: A very small proportion of the newborns in a …

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unlabeled | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Posted: (53 years ago) Jul 20, 2022  · Yesterday, a speaker from the company formerly known as Facebook corrected themselves after mentioning “unsupervised learning,” saying they weren’t supposed to …

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Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using ...

Posted: (53 years ago) Aug 11, 2022  · John Williams writes: Bets as forecasts come up on your blog from time to time, so I thought you might be interested in this post from RealClimate, which is the place to go for informed commentary on climate science.. The post, by Gavin Schmidt, is entitled, “Don’t climate bet against the house,” and tells the story of various public bets in the past few decades …

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